What do the Storm/Hurricane Tracks show?

Storm/Hurricane tracks show the predicted path of tropical storms and hurricanes including the ensemble model predictions.

Flowx displays:

  • All storm path predictions (grey lines)
  • NOAA GFS and GEFS predicted storm locations at a specific time (purple dots)
  • CMC GDPS and CENS predicted storm locations at a specific time (red dots)

Ensemble models: are 20-odd different variations based on the primary model, where the starting conditions are slightly perturbed and solved to give different predicted tracks.  These ensemble models are used to determine possible variations in the storm track due to errors in measurement of starting conditions or margins of error in the model itself.

Track:  The tracks show when the weather system is categorised as a tropical depression (or higher category) and ends when it is predicted to dissipate.  The track does not currently show any indication of the storm category (i.e. wind speed).