Storm/Hurricane Tracks

Storm/Hurricane tracks show the predicted path of tropical storms and hurricanes including the ensemble model predictions.

Flowx displays:

  • All storm paths (grey lines)
  • NOAA GFS and GEFS storm locations at a specific time (purple dots)
  • CMC GDPS and CENS storm locations at a specific time (red dots)

This image shows three storms around Japan. Notice how the top track is tight whereas the bottom two tracks spread out. This shows the confidence in the possible path of the storm. Also notice the difference between the NOAA and CMC models, especially in the bottom right storm. This exemplifies the difference in storm predictions from the two data sources.

Ensemble Models

Ensemble models are 20-odd different variations based on the primary model, where the starting conditions are slightly perturbed and solved to give different predicted tracks.  These ensemble models are used to determine possible variations in the storm track due to errors in measurement of starting conditions or margins of error in the model itself.

The track starts when the weather system is categorized as a tropical depression and ends when it is predicted to dissipate.  The track does not currently show any indication of the storm category (i.e. wind speed).